2012 Halving: Pre-halving price: ~$12. Post-halving peak: ~$1,150

Each cycle followed a similar script: accumulation phase, explosive growth, euphoric top, brutal bear market. It was a playbook traders relied on, a narrative that shaped investment strategies and market psychology. But 2025 is different. The players have changed, the stage has expanded, and the script is being rewritten in real time.

Why Analysts Believe the Cycle Is Broken

A growing chorus of experts argues that the old rules no longer apply. The entry of institutional capital, shifting regulatory landscapes, and macroeconomic forces have, in their view, permanently altered Bitcoin’s DNA.

The ETF Revolution and Institutional Demand

Nick Ruck, Director of LVRG Research, put it bluntly: “The halving cycle started to break down in 2025.” He points to one primary culprit: the tidal wave of institutional money flowing into Bitcoin through vehicles like spot ETFs. “Sustained institutional demand through ETFs and corporate treasuries,” Ruck explains, “has lessened the expected post-peak crash and reduced volatility compared to prior cycles.”

This isn’t just theory; it’s visible in the data. While Bitcoin did decline roughly 30% from its 2025 peak—a classic post-halving correction—the drop was shallower and less chaotic than in previous cycles. The reason? ETFs have created a structural bid for Bitcoin, absorbing sell pressure and providing a floor that didn’t exist when markets were dominated by retail speculators and early adopters.

Macroeconomic Shifts and Regulatory Clarity

Grayscale’s research team added another layer to this argument in a December report. They predicted Bitcoin would reach new all-time highs in the first half of 2026, citing “growing macro demand due to currency debasement and a supportive regulatory environment in the US.” For them, the cycle isn’t just broken; it’s being replaced by a new paradigm where Bitcoin behaves more like a macro asset than a speculative tech bet.

Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, went even further, declaring the cycle theory “no longer valid.” His revised forecast—$150,000 by end-2026—reflects a belief that Bitcoin’s now driven by broader financial forces: central bank policies, inflation hedges, and portfolio diversification rather than just halving-induced scarcity.

The Counterargument: Cycles Aren’t Dead, Just Evolving

Not everyone is ready to bury the four-year cycle. Some analysts argue that what we’re seeing isn’t a breakdown but an evolution—a “leveling up,” as popular analyst Rekt Capital put it on December 20.

Bear Market Realities and Psychological Factors

Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, believes the cycle is very much intact. “Bitcoin entered a bear market in late October 2025,” he told Cointelegraph, “becoming the first major risk asset to price in a slowing economy.” For Thielen, the decline isn’t a deviation from the cycle but a confirmation of it—a classic post-peak correction that earlier cycles would recognize.

There’s also a psychological element at play. The creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, PlanB, suggested that much of the recent selling pressure comes from “OGs traumatized by 2021” and “four-year cycle fans expecting a bear market two years post-halving.” In other words, the belief in the cycle can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, as traders sell in anticipation of a downturn, they create one.

The “Stretched” Cycle Theory

Analyst Alex Wacy offered a nuanced take: “The four-year cycle isn’t broken, but expectations are.” He points to the underperformance of altcoins, the lack of euphoric “altseason,” and the general market boredom as signs that this cycle isn’t following the old script—but that doesn’t mean the script is gone. “Cycles don’t always end,” Wacy noted. “Sometimes they stretch.”

This idea of a “stretched” cycle resonates with many who’ve lived through previous booms and busts. The rhythms are still there, but they’re playing out over longer timeframes, with less volatility and more institutional participation smoothing out the extremes.

What Comes Next: Scenarios for 2026 and Beyond

So where does Bitcoin go from here? The answer depends largely on which school of thought you subscribe to.

The Bull Case: Institutional Adoption Accelerates

If the cycle is indeed broken, the path forward is one of gradual, sustained growth driven by:

• ETF inflows: Continued adoption by wealth managers, pension funds, and corporate treasuries
• Macro tailwinds: Persistent inflation, currency debasement, and geopolitical uncertainty driving demand for hard assets
• Regulatory clarity: Clearer rules in the US and other major economies reducing uncertainty

In this scenario, Bitcoin could see slower but more stable appreciation, with fewer of the gut-wrenching drawdowns that characterized earlier cycles.

The Bear Case: Cycle Dynamics Reassert Themselves

If the cycle is merely evolving, not broken, we might expect:

• Extended consolidation: A longer-than-expected bear market or sideways action
• Delayed euphoria: A deferred bull run that eventually arrives but on a different timetable
• Altcoin catch-up: A eventual “altseason” once Bitcoin stability returns

This path would be bumpier, more familiar to veterans, and potentially more profitable for those who can time the turns correctly.

The Wild Cards: Black Swans and Unknown Unknowns

Of course, Bitcoin has always been predictable only in hindsight. Several wild cards could reshape the trajectory entirely:

• Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs): How will government-backed digital money impact Bitcoin’s value proposition?
• Technological breakthroughs: Could improvements in scalability, privacy, or interoperability drive new adoption waves?
• Geopolitical shocks: War, trade wars, or monetary system crises could catapult Bitcoin into a new role overnight.

Conclusion: Navigating a New Era

Whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is broken, stretched, or simply evolving, one thing is clear: the market is maturing. The days of simple, predictable patterns may be behind us, replaced by a more complex—and potentially more stable—future where Bitcoin is influenced as much by macroeconomics as by its own internal rhythms.

For investors, this means adapting. The old playbooks need updating, the indicators need recalibrating, and the mindset needs shifting from speculative gambling to strategic allocation. Bitcoin is growing up, and its cycles—whether they exist or not—are growing up with it.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle?
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle refers to a historical pattern where its price tends to follow a predictable sequence of bull and bear markets roughly aligned with its halving events, which occur every four years and reduce the rate of new Bitcoin issuance.

Why do some analysts think the cycle is broken?
Institutional adoption via ETFs, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic factors have introduced new demand drivers that may have overridden the historical supply-driven cycle, leading to shallower corrections and reduced volatility.

Could the cycle just be delayed rather than broken?
Yes, some experts believe the cycle is “stretched” rather than broken, with similar phases playing out over longer timeframes due to increased market maturity and institutional participation.

What are the implications for investors if the cycle is broken?
Investors might expect less volatile, more gradual price appreciation driven by structural factors like ETF inflows and macro trends rather than cyclical supply shocks, requiring a shift from timing-based to allocation-based strategies.

How does the current regulatory environment affect Bitcoin’s cycle?
Clearer regulations in key markets like the U.S. reduce uncertainty and encourage institutional participation, potentially dampening cyclical volatility and supporting longer-term price stability.